"We expect the domestic steel demand to grow at a CAGR of 6.7 percent during FY12 to FY17, much faster than the expected growth in Chinese demand during the same period," CARE Research said in the report.
Domestic steel capacity increased at a CAGR of 8 percent in 2004-05 to 2011-12. In line with the domestic steel capacity, steel production in the domestic market also recorded a similar increase during the same period, it said.
However, in near terms, the domestic steel industry would remain in a deficit state for the next two years. Increase in the demand is likely to be offset by the rise in supply of the metal, thereby, keeping the domestic demand stable in the near term, it said.
While the demand for flat products in the domestic market is likely to be supported by the automobiles and the pipe manufacturing sector, although at a timid pace, demand for long products will continue to increase on the back of modest growth in demand from the construction sector, it said.
The global supply of steel is expected to continue to adjust itself with the change in demand. It further pointed out that the global steel industry witnessed a rather structural shift in its consumption pattern as the demand for steel in the European Union and the US failed to reach the consumption levels it achieved in calender year (CY) 2001.
However, steel appetite from the emerging economies like China and India increased significantly, it added. Globally, steel production is likely to increase at a CAGR of around 2 per cent during CY11 to CY14, it said.
Despite declining margins and slowdown in demand, global steel industry continues to add capacity. The global steel capacity is expected to add another 130 million tonne of capacity during the next three years, while consumption during the same period is might increase by about 120 million tonne, the report added.
The domestic steel demand is likely to increase by about 6.7 percent during the CY12 to CY17, domestic supply during the same period may rise at a CAGR of about 7.6 percent.
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