May 02, 2013, 06.38 PM IST
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Six factors that can shape growth and inflation in FY14
The Reserve Bank of India released its macro economic report 2012-13 on Thursday, a day before its annual monetary policy. It laid down six factors, which would prompt the central bank to take its stance in monetary measures.
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Six factors that can shape growth and inflation in FY14
The Reserve Bank of India released its macro economic report 2012-13 on Thursday, a day before its annual monetary policy. It laid down six factors, which would prompt the central bank to take its stance in monetary measures.
The Reserve Bank of India released the Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments 2012-13 on Thursday, a day before its annual monetary policy. The report mentioned six factors, which would shape the central bank's monetary policy in the coming months.
Here's what RBI said in its macro report:
- If consumption decelerates markedly from here and impacts staples (viz rice, wheat and pulsues) and not just discretionary items, it could delay the recovery process. However, given that CAD risks are still large, monetary stimulus from a consumption viewpoint needs to be restrained for some time to allow the trade account to adjust.
- The risk of a sub-normal monsoon to growth and inflation cannot be ignored altogether for 2013-14 despite forecast of a normal monsoon.
- The biggest risk to recovery comes from failure to effectively complete policy action to remove supply-side constraints that impede investments. This could bring to the fore both the growth and financial stability risks. With rising corporate leverage, especially in the infrastructure space, it is necessary to resolve the vexed structural issues that the sector faces.
- While fiscal risks have been lowered, they have not waned. If growth slows down further it could result in revenue shortfalls that could lead to the resurgence of fiscal risks.
- Global risks still remain significant which could have an adverse impact in the form of sudden stop and reversal of capital inflows.
- While global inflation is expected to stay muted in the near term, given the large doses of QE, liquidity could feed into long-term inflation expectations at some stage.
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